Sometimes, a position can be very tricky, and the right evaluation is a key to make the right move on the board. Look at the following position where black is to move played between Sitki Fatih Karacol and Sam Murray, in the 52nd Irish National Club Championship (2025, Sligo). White has a material advantage by having a rook on the board while Black has merely 2 pawns as a compensation. But what a great two pawn they are: just about to be promoted. So, in terms materials, we can say White is way ahead, however, Black also has teeth to bite with.
In general, the pawns are the basic units of chess, and one measures the values of other pieces in terms of “pawns”, or “centipawns” in computers which basically means 1/100 part of a pawn value. Usually, we consider pawn as value of 1, minor pieces like bishops and knights as value of 3, rooks as 5, queen as 9, and king is infinite (since that “capturing” the king is the overall aim of the king). Note that, values of are not set in stone, and they can change over the game, depending on the position. For instance, we usually say that a pawn two squares away from promotion may be viewed as at least worth of 3 (it requires a piece to hold back the pawn from transformation). Obviously, a promoted pawn can worth even more, for instance, 9 as being a queen. If the two Black’s pawns can be promoted while only one of White’s then Black will lead in material. So, when evaluating the board solely from the material perspective, Black has a material advantage.
However, one needs to consider other things, not just material balances. For instance, how the pieces are positioned. White is protecting the pawn from behind and also is positioned to capture at least one of the Queens Black may promote. White King is well hidden and protected from any imminent Queen attacks after a promotion, while Black king had got separated from the pawns, standing behind them which may expose one or the other to future Queen attacks. Black can equalise the odds, or even improve that having a positional advantage if White rook makes a sacrifice. So it seems to be a closely draw position in that sense.
Who does have the real advantage here: White, Black, or it is a draw. In case uncertainty, the position gives almost always the right clue. Black can only hope for a draw here. Any mistake, and Black is losing. For instance, in the game 1… g1=Q happened and it loses immediately: the rook will be defended by the White’s 2. c8=Q move. Note that, 2… f1=Q can be counter by 3. Qf8+ and the rook advantage of White can hold out. Black cannot hope for a perpetual check either because White’s rook and the well defended position of the King prevents Black from attacking effectively the king.
If Black realises that draw is the maximum to achieve here then Black will look for more formidable forms of attacks, for instance, to a perpetual check. That is the solution is 1… f1=Q. The reason is there is a good chance attacking effectively the White’s king from the Queen’s side by threatening to capture the pawn on B5 and/or D4. So, for 2. c8=Q Qxb5+ 3. Kd6 Qb4+ will follow. For 4. Ke6 Qxd4 5. Rc4 (to pin the Queen), 5… g1=Q will save the day, and Black may even has a chance to win.
That is, the White King needs to defend the D4 pawn, and only the King can do that. Unfortunately, Kd5 is the only option to do that. For that, Qb5+ will repeat the previous position, and that will lead to a draw.
The full, original game can be follow here: